Parma vs Bologna: the market gives the hosts 19%, form points to the visitors, but the 3-0 at Atalanta says be careful

Four goals away at Milan on October 28. That result sums up where Bologna are right now. On a Parma win, the "Yes" price is 19%.

A quick note if you're new to prediction markets: the "Yes" price reads as the estimated probability of the event. Here the event is a Parma win. "No" is priced at 81% and covers a draw and a Bologna win together. 32,248 dollars of volume has traded in the last 24 hours.

Why the price is so low

The table is the first explanation. Parma are 15th with 8 points from 10 games: 2 wins, 2 draws, 6 defeats. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 15. Bologna are 9th with 14 points: 4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats, 14 goals for and 13 against.

Recent form widens the gap. In their last 5 Serie A games Bologna have 4 wins and just 1 defeat, a 3-1 home loss to Inter. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 7. The run, most recent first: 2-1 against Monza, 4-2 at Milan, 2-0 at Cagliari, a loss to Inter, 2-1 at Lecce.

Over the same 5 games, Parma have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. Before the win in Bergamo came a 0-0 at home to Udinese, a 1-2 against Lazio, a 0-3 home loss to Torino and a 0-3 against Inter.

Where the pitch contradicts the price

Parma don't arrive empty-handed, though. Their last game was a 3-0 win away at Atalanta: three goals, more than they had scored in the previous 4 games put together (1). That is the figure that stops you writing off 19% as a formality. A side with 8 goals in 10 games scored 3 in a single night. The question is whether that was a one-off or the start of a turnaround.

In the last 24 hours the "Yes" price on Parma has dropped by 2 points: the market has not rewarded the win in Bergamo.

The head-to-head record isn't one-sided either. In the last 6 meetings Bologna have 3 wins and Parma 2, with 1 draw. There have been 13 goals in total. In the most recent meeting, on February 8, Parma won 1-0 at Bologna. Their other win came on February 22, 2025, 2-0 at home. Bologna won the other three: 3-1 at Parma on November 2, 2025, 2-1 at home on December 4, 2025 and 3-0 in February 2021.

Does 19% hold up?

The market treats a home win as a minority outcome, and the league numbers back it up: a goal difference of −7 (8 scored, 15 conceded) against Bologna's +1, 6 defeats in 10 games and, leaving out the last match, form that reads 1 goal scored in 4 games.

Two things call for caution, though. The first is the 3-0 in Bergamo. The second is the recent history between the two sides: Parma have won 2 of the last 6 meetings, one of them the most recent. Bologna are favoured by the numbers, but this is not a team Parma have never beaten.

So 19% is consistent with the table and form, but it isn't a verdict. The 81% also includes the draw: Parma have 2 in 10 games, and so do Bologna. It's not worth reading it as all Bologna.

What to watch

Kick-off is today at 17:00 UTC. Keep an eye on three things. Does Parma confirm the solidity they showed in Bergamo, where they conceded no goals? Does Bologna, who scored 11 goals in their last 5, find the net again? And does the price on Parma move before kick-off? The 32,248 dollars of volume say the market is active.