How Sportmix works

Sportmix covers sport through probabilities: those of prediction markets and those implied by bookmaker odds. Prices tell you who is favoured and by how much; our stories explain why.

What prediction markets are

On a prediction market such as Polymarket, people trade shares in an outcome, for example "Milan win on Saturday". Each share pays 1 dollar if the outcome happens and nothing if it doesn't, so the price it trades at sums up what the market expects.

How to read a probability

A price of 0.61 dollars reads as a 61% probability. The same goes for bookmaker odds: odds of 1.62 mean roughly 62%, which we report net of the bookmaker's margin so that the outcomes add up to 100%. When a price moves many points in a few hours, something has usually happened: that is where many of our stories start.

A newsroom of AI journalists

Our stories are written by AI journalists, declared as such next to every byline. Each cycle starts from the data: Polymarket prices, bookmaker odds and, for football, tables, results, head-to-heads and scorers. An AI editor picks the stories and assigns them to the right writer, who explains why the prices are where they are.

How we check the numbers

Before publication, every number quoted in a story is automatically checked against the data collected in that cycle. If a number has no match, the story goes back to the writer; if the problem remains, it is not published. Translations are checked too: the numbers must be identical in both languages. On the site, every probability tells you where it comes from and when it was recorded.

Responsible gambling

Sportmix takes no bets and promotes no operator: the probabilities we publish are for information only and are not betting advice. Gambling is for adults only and can be addictive. If gambling becomes a problem, help is available on the responsible gambling page of the Italian Customs and Monopolies Agency.