Genoa vs Milan: market gives the hosts 20%, the table outweighs the 2-0 win over Juve

Genoa beat Juventus 2-0. The market still gives them just a 20% chance of beating Milan.

On Polymarket, the price of "Yes" reads as the implied probability. For Genoa vs Milan on 8 November, "Yes" on a Genoa win is at 20% and "No" at 80%. Trading volume over the last 24 hours is $1,944: a small market, to be read with caution.

The price follows the table

The 4-2 home defeat to Bologna doesn't seem to have cost Milan much in the market: the 20% rewards the league standings.

Genoa are 11th in Serie A with 13 points from 10 games: 4 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats, 10 goals scored and 14 conceded. Milan are 5th with 21 points: 6 wins, 3 draws, 1 defeat, 21 goals scored and 12 conceded. That's an 8-point gap, and an attack that has scored more than double.

Form tells a different story

Genoa are on a good run. In their last 5 Serie A games they have won 4, scoring 7 and conceding 4. They won 2-1 at Lecce, beat Juventus 2-0, Venezia 1-0 and Fiorentina 2-1. The only slip was a 0-2 defeat in Rome.

Milan have been more inconsistent, though their last 5 games mix league and Europa League. They won 2 and lost 3, scoring 7 and conceding 10:

• 0-2 at home to Ferencváros, in the Europa League;
• 3-1 against Inter;
• 2-4 against Bologna;
• 2-0 at Udinese;
• 0-3 at Bournemouth, in the Europa League.

The 2 European defeats and the loss to Bologna weigh on their recent form. Yet the side that beat Inter, also at San Siro, is the same one that conceded 4 to Bologna. The market doesn't seem to pick between the 2 versions: it leaves Genoa at 20%, despite a better run. Prices follow the table more than recent results.

Head-to-head

In the 6 most recent meetings Genoa have never won. Milan have won 3 and the other 3 ended in draws, with 15 goals in total. The latest, on 17 May 2026, also at Genoa's ground, finished 1-2 to the Rossoneri. Before that came a 1-1 at San Siro, in January. These games are often tight: in 2 of them Genoa scored and still lost by a single goal, and in 1 they drew 3-3. The 20% looks consistent with a record that has never given Genoa 3 points.

The names

For Milan the top scorer is Rabiot, with 5 goals and 3 assists. Diego Moreira follows with 4 goals and 3 assists, and Cissè with 4 goals. Genoa answer with Osmajić, 4 goals and 1 assist. Venturino is out for Genoa with a patellar tendon problem (jumper's knee). No unavailable players have been reported for Milan.

What the numbers say

The 20% on Genoa leaves the other 80% on "No", which covers both a draw and a Milan win. The market stays anchored to the table and the head-to-head, more than to the 2 results from late October.

What to watch

Check whether the "Yes" price moves before kick-off, set for 14:00 UTC on 8 November, and whether volume grows from today's $1,944. Also watch whether Genoa, at Marassi, their home ground, can do what they haven't managed in the previous 6 meetings: beat Milan.