Premier League · Nottingham Forest - Manchester City · Sat, 7 Nov, 18:30
Nottingham Forestvs
Manchester CityMarket backs City at Forest at 57% despite two straight league defeats
Second-placed Manchester City are priced as clear favourites at 19th-placed Nottingham Forest, even after losing their last two Premier League games. The table and the head-to-head explain why.
The market has a clear favourite: Manchester City to win at Nottingham Forest is priced at 57%. Forest's own win sits at 20%.
If you're new to prediction markets: the price of the "Yes" share reads as the estimated probability. A 57% price means the crowd puts City's chance of winning at 57%.
The City-win market has traded $26,318 in the last 24 hours, the Forest-win market $16,361.
The badge versus the results
City's recent form is not pretty. In their last 5, across league, League Cup and Champions League, they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 11 goals scored and 8 conceded.
The two wins came in Europe: 5-1 over AEK Athens and a 3-2 win at RB Leipzig on 4 November. In the Premier League they have lost both of their last two, 1-2 at Aston Villa and 0-1 at home to Brighton. In between came a 2-2 League Cup draw with Brighton.
So the market is not ignoring City's wobble. It is weighing it against something worse.
The table does the heavy lifting
City are 2nd with 21 points from 9 games: 7 wins, 2 defeats, 20 goals for and 10 against. Forest are 19th with 6 points, 1 win, 3 draws and 5 defeats, with 6 scored and 12 conceded.
Forest's form is the real issue. In their last 5, all in the Premier League, they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats, scoring 2 goals and conceding 8. They lost 0-2 at Brentford last time out, drew 1-1 at Ipswich, and were beaten 0-1 by Arsenal and 0-1 by Coventry at home. They have not scored more than once in any of those 5.
History leans one way
The head-to-head backs the market. In 6 meetings City have won 4, Forest 1 and 1 was drawn, for 15 goals in total.
The most recent was a 2-2 draw at City in March 2026. Before that, City won 2-1 away at Forest in December 2025.
At Forest specifically, City have won 3 of the 4 meetings listed, 2-0, 2-0 and 2-1. The exception was a 1-0 Forest win in March 2025.
The scoring question
City's Haaland has 9 league goals and Cherki 4 goals and 2 assists. Forest's whole team has 6 goals in 9 league games. That gap in firepower is hard for any price to ignore.
Verdict from the numbers
The market is not trusting the badge blindly. A 57% price for the second-placed side leaves room for a City slip, and the last two league results show it can happen. But the opponent is 19th, winless in 5 and has conceded 8 in that run.
On the field, the numbers largely confirm the market, with one caveat: City's league form is worse than their league position suggests.
What the markets are watching next
Watch whether City's 57% holds into kick-off, how much more volume the two win markets draw, and whether the Champions League win at Leipzig carries over into the league.
