Porto near the bottom of the table but market favourites: Napoli priced at just 25%

A bottom-of-the-table side as favourites. Porto are 34th in the Champions League league phase, a 36-team table, with 0 points from 3 games. Yet the prediction market on them beating Napoli says 51%.

For anyone new to this: in prediction markets, the price of the "yes" reads as the estimated probability of the event. Here the "yes" on Porto is 51% (the "no" 49%). The "yes" on Napoli is 25% (the "no" 75%). Trading volume over the last 24 hours is $13,051 on Porto and $3,573 on Napoli: the money is piling in on the home side.

Standings: two teams in trouble

Porto have lost all 3 of their league-phase games, scoring 2 and conceding 6. Napoli are 22nd with 3 points: 1 win and 2 defeats, 5 goals scored and 7 conceded. The gap in the table favours the Italians. The price does not.

Form: Porto bouncing back, Napoli up and down

Over their last 5 games, across the league, the League Cup and the Champions League, Porto have 3 wins and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 4 conceded. All three wins came in the Primeira Liga or the Taça da Liga: 4-0 against Estoril on 31 October, 1-0 against Academico Viseu, 1-0 against Gil Vicente. The two defeats came in the Champions League: 0-1 against PSV and 2-3 at Betis. Porto haven't yet found their way in Europe, but they arrive on a run of three wins without conceding.

Napoli, over their last 5 in Serie A and the Champions League, have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 11 goals scored and 10 conceded. Those are rollercoaster numbers. The 4-1 win at Monza on 28 October shows the attack is working. But the 0-2 loss to Juventus on 1 November undid that. Before it came the 3-3 draw with Roma, the 4-3 win over Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League and the 0-1 loss at Venezia. When Napoli score a lot, they also concede a lot: this is a team that lives on high-scoring games, and the market doesn't treat them as safe favourites.

Absences are weighing on the price

Napoli have 10 players out, among them Lobotka (ankle injury), Buongiorno (knee), Hojlund (illness), Spinazzola and Neres (thigh). De Bruyne (ankle), Di Lorenzo and Olivera (muscle) are doubtful. Porto have 4 players out: V. Sousa (leg) and William Gomes (ankle), plus Gabriel Mec and Prpic left out of the squad. Pietuszewski and Smalling are doubtful. Napoli's list is longer and cuts across more areas of the team.

Where the market and the pitch disagree

The table would give Napoli an edge. Recent form and absences push the price towards Porto. The 51% on Porto is essentially a bet on home advantage and momentum, not on the quality of the league-phase table. The 25% on Napoli, meanwhile, discounts a team capable of scoring 4 goals and then none within four days.

What to watch

Watch for confirmation on De Bruyne, Di Lorenzo and Olivera, the three doubts on Napoli's list, and on Smalling and Pietuszewski on the other side. Then check whether the volume on Napoli, currently $3,573, grows before kick-off, scheduled for Wednesday 4 November.