Barcelona priced at 78% against Aston Villa, but the form book is less one-sided

The market has made up its mind: Barcelona to beat Aston Villa trades at 78%. A quick note for newcomers: on a prediction market, the price of the "Yes" share reads as the estimated probability of that outcome. The "No" side sits at 22%.

Barcelona's price slipped 1 point in the last 24 hours. Aston Villa's win market moved the other way, up 1 point to 11%. The draw is priced at 13%.

The money is on the favourite. The Barcelona win market has seen $84,883 traded in 24 hours, the Villa win market $42,975, and the draw just $8,061.

What the table says

The league-phase table doesn't fully back that price. Barcelona are 8th out of 36 with 6 points from 3 games: 2 wins, 1 defeat, 11 goals scored and 6 conceded.

Aston Villa are 2nd with 9 points from 3 games. They have 3 wins, no draws and no defeats, with 12 goals scored and only 3 conceded.

On points, the visitors are the better side in this competition so far. The 78% looks like a price on Barcelona's quality and home advantage, not on the standings.

Recent form

Over their last 5 games, across La Liga and the Champions League, Barcelona won 3 and lost 2, scoring 18 and conceding 10. The results swing hard:

• A 6-1 win over Alaves in their most recent game.
• A 1-2 home defeat to Real Madrid.
• A 2-4 loss at Paris Saint Germain in the Champions League.
• A 5-2 win at Real Betis.
• A 4-1 win at Galatasaray.

That is a lot of goals at both ends, and it gives Villa something to work with. Barcelona have conceded at least 1 goal in each of those 5 games.

Villa's last 5 span the Premier League, the Champions League and the League Cup. They won 3, drew 1 and lost 1, scoring 7 and conceding 6. Their latest result was a 1-1 home draw with Fulham. Before that came a 0-3 League Cup defeat at Bournemouth.

The other three were wins:

• 2-1 over Manchester City.
• 3-1 over Viking in the Champions League.
• 1-0 at Newcastle.

Villa are not scoring freely, but they have beaten City and Newcastle in that run.

The injury lists

Barcelona have 6 players listed as out:

• Bardghji (knee)
• Christensen (muscle)
• Espart (ankle)
• Garcia (muscle)
• Kounde (ankle)
• Olmo (groin)

Villa have 3 out through injury: Onana (knee), Ruggeri (muscle) and Wan-Bissaka (muscle). Cisse and Madjo are listed as off the roster.

Where the market may be generous

Villa's 11% means the market sees an upset as a long shot. Add the 13% draw and the market leaves 24% for Villa to take something from the game. Villa's 3 wins from 3 and their 3 goals conceded are the numbers that argue against a price this low. Barcelona's attack argues for it: they scored 5 or more in two of their last 5 games.

The market is paying for Barcelona's scoring and home advantage. It is not paying for their defensive record, which leaves 10 goals conceded in 5 games.

What the markets are watching next

Watch the Villa win price. It has already edged up to 11%, and any further move before kick-off will show whether traders think the table or the favourite's reputation should carry more weight. Barcelona's 78% has to survive a defence that has leaked in every recent game.