Thunder still the market's pick at Clippers, but the price has dropped 8 points

What the market believes

A quick note for anyone new to prediction markets: the price of the "yes" share reads as the probability the crowd assigns to that outcome. Priced at 72 cents, it means roughly a 72% chance.

On the Thunder vs. Clippers market, the Oklahoma City Thunder sit at 72%, which leaves the LA Clippers at 28%. In plain words: the market sees the Thunder as the clear favourite to win this NBA game, and the Clippers as the side that needs things to go their way.

How fast the belief is moving

The 24-hour change on the market is 8 points, taken off the Thunder's price. That is a big shift for a single day, and it is worth saying clearly that it does not turn the Thunder into underdogs. They are still the firm favourite. The market is simply less sure of them than it was 24 hours ago. Trading has been busy too: $112,756 changed hands over the last 24 hours.

Why the market leans Thunder

The recent numbers explain the favouritism well. Over their last 5 games, all in the NBA, the Thunder went 3 wins and 2 losses, scoring 577 points and conceding 529. The wins came with some authority: 114-75 at home against the Washington Wizards, 128-97 away at the Memphis Grizzlies, and 124-116 at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Clippers' form is a sharper contrast. They won only 1 of their last 5, scoring 595 points and conceding 622. Their one win was a 139-123 home result over the New Orleans Pelicans. The other 4 were defeats: 110-133 at the Phoenix Suns, 116-117 at home to the Miami Heat, 118-125 at home to the Toronto Raptors, and 112-124 at the Golden State Warriors. The Heat game was the narrowest of those, a single point, and it was in LA.

Put simply, the Thunder arrive with the better record and the better points balance, and the Clippers arrive having conceded more than they scored. That is the backbone of a 72% price.

Where the numbers push back

The market is not looking at a flawless Thunder run, and the 8-point slide has some support in the form line. Their two most recent games were both away at the Portland Trail Blazers, and both were losses: 108-118, then 103-123 in the one before it. In those two games the Thunder scored 108 and 103 points while conceding 118 and 123. That is a clear dip after the wins over Washington and Memphis. The results show a Thunder side whose latest games are weaker than the earlier ones in the same 5-game window.

The Clippers' own recent results offer them little to lean on. The Phoenix defeat, 110-133, is their most recent game and the heaviest of the 5 on points conceded. Their 28% reflects a team that has lost 4 of 5, even if it is playing at home.

The one-line read

The market believes in Oklahoma City, 72% to 28%. That belief has weakened by 8 points in a day, and the Thunder's last two results in Portland are the softest part of their recent record. Whether the Clippers' home game can close the gap is what tonight will tell us. We describe probabilities here, not picks.