Genoa vs Juventus: bookmakers give the Bianconeri 56%, but recent form is identical

Genoa haven't beaten Juventus in at least the last 5 meetings. Over the last 5 games: 4 Juve wins, 1 draw, 0 Genoa wins. In the 2 played at Genoa's Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Juve won 1-0 and 3-0.

That's the number that best explains tomorrow's price.

What the odds say

The implied probabilities from the 3 bookmakers, meaning the chance each set of odds assigns to each outcome, are tightly clustered. Pinnacle has Juventus at 56% with odds of 1.71, the draw at 26% (3.76) and Genoa at 18% (5.37). Unibet is slightly more bullish: Juve 57% (1.56), draw 25% (3.6), Genoa 18% (5). Codere falls in line: Juve 56% (1.69), draw 26% (3.7), Genoa 18% (5.2).

The picture is the same everywhere: Juventus are favourites, but that still leaves almost half the market unaccounted for. Genoa sit below 20% with all 3.

The table explains the favouritism

The gap in the standings is clear. Juventus are 7th with 14 points from 8 games: 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, 11 goals scored and 8 conceded. Genoa are 16th with 7 points: 2 wins, 1 draw, 5 defeats, 6 goals scored and 13 conceded.

The heaviest number is Genoa's defence: 13 goals conceded in 8 games, against 6 scored. This is a side that has so far suffered more than it has produced.

Form, though, is far more even

Here the case for Juve shrinks. Over their last 5 games, Genoa have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded. The latest result is a 1-0 win over Venezia, preceded by a 0-2 defeat at Roma. Before that came a 2-1 win over Fiorentina, a 1-2 loss at Parma and a 1-1 draw with Frosinone.

Juventus have the same record: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded. They come off a 2-0 win at Lecce, but before that was a 0-3 home defeat to Lazio. Then a 1-1 draw at Cagliari, a 2-0 win over Atalanta and a 2-3 loss at Sassuolo.

On paper, then, recent form doesn't separate the 2 teams. The market leans more on the league table and the head-to-head record.

Home advantage

This is the point to read carefully. In their last 3 home games Genoa haven't lost: 1-0 against Venezia, 2-1 against Fiorentina, 1-1 with Frosinone. In their last 3 away games, Juventus won 2-0 at Lecce, drew 1-1 at Cagliari and lost 2-3 at Sassuolo.

It's not a big sample, and the bookmakers treat it as a footnote: Genoa stay at 18% even with these numbers. But it's the only thing that dents the "easy pick" narrative.

Who can score

Genoa's man to watch is Milutin Osmajić: 3 goals and 1 assist. That's 3 of the team's 6 goals in 8 games, so Genoa's attacking threat runs largely through him.

Against Juventus, though, Genoa have never scored in the last 5 meetings. That's 7 goals in 5 games, all of them Juventus': 7-0 on aggregate. In short: few goals, and all of them Bianconeri.

What to watch

Tomorrow, at 20:45, keep an eye on 2 things. First: whether Juventus' odds stay around 1.56-1.71 across the 3 bookmakers or move. Second: whether Osmajić can break a run of meetings in which Genoa have neither scored nor won.