Fiorentina favourites against Atalanta, but the table tells another story

Fiorentina are 18th in Serie A. Yet all 3 bookmakers make them the favourites against Atalanta, who sit 11th.

The percentages below are the probabilities implied by the odds. Pinnacle has a Fiorentina win at 44%, the draw at 26% and an Atalanta win at 30%, with odds of 2.20 for the home win, 3.74 for the draw and 3.20 for the away win. Codere (IT) is at 43% for the home win, 26% for the draw and 31% for the away win, with odds of 2.23, 3.65 and 3.05. Betclic (FR) has 43%, 26% and 31%, with odds of 2.12, 3.50 and 2.93. All 3 sources say the same thing: Fiorentina in front, Atalanta second, the draw last.

What the table says

The pitch tells a different story. Fiorentina have 4 points from 8 games: 1 win, 1 draw, 6 defeats. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 19. Atalanta have 10 points from 8 games, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats. Their goal record is 14 scored, 15 conceded. In the standings Atalanta are better off, and by a fair margin.

Recent form

Here the gap narrows. Over the last 5 games both sides have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats. Fiorentina have scored 8 and conceded 10. Atalanta have scored 10 and conceded 12.

Fiorentina come into this on 3 straight defeats: 1-2 at Inter, 1-3 at home to Como, 1-2 at Genoa. Before that came a 1-1 draw at home to Napoli and a 4-2 win at Venezia. They have scored in all 5 games, but they have conceded too many.

Atalanta's run has been more erratic. They drew 4-4 at home to Frosinone, lost 2-3 at Milan, beat Venezia 3-1 and lost 0-2 at Juventus. Before that, a 1-2 home defeat to Cagliari. Of the 2 away games in that run, Milan and Juventus, both were defeats.

Home advantage

The market favours Fiorentina: 44% against 30% at Pinnacle, 43% against 31% at Codere and Betclic. But Atalanta at 30-31% are no clear underdogs, and the draw, at 26% with all 3 bookmakers, is rated the least likely outcome.

The recent numbers don't point the same way: at home, in the last 5, Fiorentina have not won. They have the 1-1 draw with Napoli and the 1-3 defeat to Como.

Head to head

The last 5 meetings are perfectly balanced: 2 Fiorentina wins, 2 Atalanta wins and 1 draw, with 15 goals in total. From most recent to oldest:

• 1-1, Fiorentina at home;
• 2-0 Atalanta, Atalanta at home;
• 1-0 Fiorentina, Fiorentina at home;
• 3-2 Atalanta, Atalanta at home;
• 3-2 Fiorentina, Atalanta at home.

The 2 oldest games both produced 5 goals. When these sides meet, goals are rarely in short supply.

Key men

For Atalanta it's Nikola Krstović: 6 goals and 2 assists. He alone accounts for 6 of Atalanta's 14 goals. For Fiorentina the reference point is Franco Mastantuono, with 3 goals.

What to watch

Kick-off is on 29 October at 20:45 Italian time (19:45 UTC). Watch for 2 things. First: whether Fiorentina end their run of 3 defeats. Second: whether Atalanta find points on the road, where they took none in their last 2 outings. Check the odds before kick-off too: today the 3 bookmakers are aligned, and any move from them would be the signal to follow.