Frosinone v Lecce: a 23% draw price, yet Lecce haven't drawn once — 0 draws in 8 games

Zero draws in 8 games. It's the oddest number in Frosinone v Lecce: Lecce have 3 wins and 5 defeats, and not a single draw. Yet the bookmakers price the draw at 22-23%.

What the prices say

Pinnacle has Frosinone at 1.69, the draw at 4.18 and Lecce at 4.82: implied probabilities of 57%, 23% and 20%. Unibet is on the same line: 57% home, 22% draw, 20% away.

For those unfamiliar with them: on a prediction market, the price of a "yes" share reads as the estimated probability of the event. The one on a Frosinone win sits at 59%, which backs up the bookmakers. Trading volume over the last 24 hours is $1,904.

Why Frosinone are ahead

The table explains much of the price. Frosinone are 7th with 14 points from 8 games: 4 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats, 17 goals scored and 13 conceded. Lecce are 12th with 9 points: 3 wins, 5 defeats, 9 goals scored and 14 conceded.

Recent form, most recent first, points the same way but with more nuance.

• Frosinone, last 5: 4-4 away at Atalanta, 4-2 v Sassuolo, 0-3 away at Napoli, 2-0 v Como, 1-1 away at Genoa. Record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat, 11 goals scored and 10 conceded.
• Lecce, last 5: 0-2 v Juventus, 3-0 away at Udinese, 1-2 v Bologna, 0-3 away at Milan, 3-2 v Monza. Record: 2 wins, 3 defeats, 7 goals scored and 9 conceded.

Lecce come in on the back of a defeat and have scored more than one goal in only 2 of their last 5. Frosinone scored 4 in each of their last two games played. Up front, Antonio Raimondo has 7 goals; Giorgi Kvernadze has 3, plus 1 assist.

The draw: a 23% that looks generous on the pitch

Here's the crux. The market gives the draw 23%, but Lecce have never drawn in 8 games: they've won 3 and lost 5. Their season so far has had only two outcomes, and the draw isn't one of them. That's why the 23% looks generous.

There is a counterweight. Frosinone have drawn 2 of 8, and both came in their last 5: the 4-4 with Atalanta and the 1-1 with Genoa. These are also two sides that concede, 13 for Frosinone and 14 for Lecce, and a game with goals at both ends can finish level.

One difference remains, though. Frosinone have already found the draw on the pitch; Lecce never have. Anyone pricing 20% on an away win and 23% on the draw is effectively giving Lecce a better chance of nicking a point than of winning. Lecce's results tell the opposite story: so far, their points have come only from outright wins.

Head-to-head

There are only 2 meetings. In the first, Lecce won 2-1 at home. In the second, at Frosinone, it finished 1-1. Total: 1 Lecce win, 1 draw, 0 Frosinone wins, 5 goals overall. A small sample, but it offers a 1-1 for anyone leaning towards the draw.

What to watch in the coming days

Keep an eye on two things. First, whether the prediction market's 59% moves closer to the bookmakers' 57% or stays higher, given the still-low volume. Second, the draw price: 4.18 at Pinnacle, 4.00 at Unibet, 4.20 at Codere. If it shortens, the market is putting more weight on a cagey game. If it stays put, the price keeps saying Frosinone are ahead, while the pitch says that Lecce, to get anything out of this, have so far known only the road to victory.