Venezia vs Inter: the market gives the Nerazzurri 74%, and the table explains almost everything

The prediction market gives Inter a 74% chance of winning at Venezia. Almost 3 times out of 4. For an away game, that's the price of a team coming to collect the 3 points, not one coming to fight for them.

Bookmakers and market see the same game

The market isn't exaggerating. Pinnacle prices Inter at 1.36, an implied 71%. Codere is also at 1.36, Unibet drops to 1.27: in both cases 70%. The draw is 5.80 at Pinnacle and Codere, 5.40 at Unibet: 17% across the board.

On Venezia the bookmakers are in line: between 12.6% and 13.3%, with odds from 6.80 to 7.62. The prediction market is slightly harsher: 11.5%, up a touch over the last 24 hours. $11131 of volume has gone through on an Inter win in 24 hours, against $1015 on Venezia. The money is mostly on the league leaders.

Why: the table says it all

Venezia are bottom, 20th out of 20. Inter are top. 3 points against 22 after 8 matchdays.

The lagoon side have won 1 game and lost 7. They've scored 6 goals and conceded 17. Inter haven't lost yet: 7 wins and 1 draw. They've scored 23 and conceded 10.

It's a clash between a team whose attack is humming and a team that can't shut its own door. This season so far, Venezia have conceded almost triple the goals they've scored.

Form backs it up

Venezia's last 5: 1 win, 4 defeats, 4 goals scored and 10 conceded. The latest was a 0-1 loss away to Genoa on Sunday. Before that came a 1-3 at Atalanta in Bergamo. At home they conceded 2 to Lazio and 4 to Fiorentina.

Inter's last 5: 4 wins and 1 draw, with 15 goals scored. On Sunday it was a 2-1 over Fiorentina, before that a 3-1 at Bologna and a 3-0 against Parma. The only slip was a 2-2 away at Roma. The 5-3 against Udinese tells another story too: at the back, they do give something away, with 7 goals conceded in 5 games.

Then there's the attack. Marcus Thuram has 5 goals and 2 assists, Lautaro Martínez 4 goals, Hakan Çalhanoğlu 3. Three different sources of goals, one of them from midfield. For a defence as leaky as Venezia's, that's one more problem.

Where the upset could come from

The 12-13% the bookmakers give Venezia has a concrete anchor: the 1-0 over Napoli at home on October 17. It's Venezia's only win of the season, and it came right here in the lagoon against a big side. It shows that when Venezia keep a clean sheet, one goal can be enough.

The head-to-head record tells a similar story. 4 meetings, 4 Inter wins, no draws. But always by a narrow margin or close to it: 0-1 in Venice and 1-0 in Milan in the last season they spent together in Serie A, 2-1 and 0-2 the one before. 7 goals in total across 4 games. Never a rout.

Inter's dominance in the head-to-head is total. The margin, though, has always been slim. That's where the market leaves Venezia the little room they have.

What to watch

On Wednesday, the first thing to watch is Inter's price in the hours before kick-off. Both teams come off Sunday's games, so if the 74% moves, it will show how the market is reading this midweek round.

Then the pitch. In the 4 previous meetings Inter have never won by more than 2 goals. My read: if Venezia can keep the game tight like they did against Napoli, the 17% on the draw and their own 13% stop looking like background numbers. If instead Thuram and Lautaro find space early, the table will do the rest.