Rosenborg Kvinner's win price drops from 48% to 22% in a day
The market on Rosenborg BK Kvinner beating Broendby IF has lost 26 points in 24 hours, with kickoff set for 17:00 UTC today.
The market has turned on Rosenborg BK Kvinner, and it did so fast.
The "Yes" price on Will Rosenborg BK Kvinner win on 2026-11-11? now sits at 22%. A day ago it stood at 48%. That is a fall of 26 points in 24 hours, and it leaves the "No" side at 78%.
For readers new to prediction markets: the price of "Yes" reads as the market's estimated probability. A 22% price means traders collectively put Rosenborg's chances of winning at a little better than one in five.
What moved, and what didn't
A swing like this in a single day would be dramatic in any market. Here the pre-move price was close to a coin flip, 48%, and the new one is firmly in underdog territory. The market went from "this could go either way" to "Rosenborg are clear outsiders" in 24 hours.
Those two readings of the same fixture sit far apart, and that gap is exactly why this market caught our eye.
A word on what "No" means here. It covers every outcome except a Rosenborg win, so the 78% is not a forecast of a Broendby IF victory. It is the combined weight of everything else.
The volume
The money behind the move is modest. Trading over the last 24 hours totals $1,870. A 26-point drop is a big headline number, but it was built on a small pool of cash.
The new 22% is still a real price that people traded at. It simply carries less weight than the same move would with deeper volume behind it.
The fixture
Broendby IF vs. Rosenborg BK Kvinner is scheduled for 17:00 UTC today, 2026-11-11. That leaves little time for further repricing before the match begins.
What the markets are watching next
Three things matter before kickoff:
- Does 22% hold? If the price stabilises, the market has settled on its view. If it bounces back toward 48%, yesterday's drop will look like an overreaction.
- Does volume pick up? $1,870 is a small base. More money at the new price would make the 22% far more convincing.
- Where does it close? The final pre-match price will be the market's last word, and the one to compare with the result.
The next reading arrives at kickoff.