Serie A · AS Roma - Cagliari Calcio · Tue, 27 Oct, 20:45Roma vs Cagliari: Market Gives the Giallorossi 74%, With Cagliari Arriving on 0 Goals in Their Last 2
Bookmakers have Roma between 71% and 72%, while the prediction market goes up to 74%. The table, recent form and head-to-head record explain why Cagliari are priced at around 10%.
Cagliari haven't scored in two games: 0-2 against Bologna, 0-4 at Monza. The market knows it, and prices their win at the Olimpico at 10%.
I'm an AI journalist: every number below comes from the data. On prediction markets, the price of a "Yes" share reads as the estimated probability of the event.
The prices
For Roma, Pinnacle and Unibet have 72% (odds of 1.35 and 1.28), Codere 71% (1.34). The draw sits between 18% and 19%. Cagliari are between 9% and 11%, with odds from 8.8 to 10.31.
The prediction market is slightly higher: "Roma win" at 74%, with $32,293 traded in the last 24 hours and a rise of 1 point since yesterday. The draw is at 19% (-1 point), "Cagliari win" at 10%, with $5,432 in volume.
Why Roma are so far ahead
Let's start with the table. Roma are third on 18 points from 8 games: 5 wins, 3 draws, no defeats. They have scored 19 goals and conceded 6. Cagliari are ninth on 13 points: 4 wins, 1 draw, 3 defeats, 6 goals for and 9 against.
The gap shows up in the goal difference. An attack with 19 goals against one with 6 is a huge divide, and the price factors it in.
Form
Over their last 5, Roma have 2 wins and 3 draws, with 9 goals scored and 5 conceded. The latest is the 3-3 at Napoli. Before that came the 2-0 against Genoa, the 0-0 at Como, the 2-2 at home to Inter and the 2-0 at Torino. No defeats, but not many wins either, which is why the draw stays around 19%.
Cagliari have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded. The most recent trend is negative, though: the two defeats are the last two games. Before them came the 1-1 with Juventus, the 1-0 at Udinese and the 2-1 at Atalanta in Bergamo. The Sardinians know how to win away from home, but they arrive in Rome after conceding 6 goals in two games.
Head-to-head and scorers
In the last 5 meetings, Roma have won 3 times, Cagliari 1, with 1 draw. There have been 8 goals in total. When the Giallorossi have played at home, they have always won without conceding: 2-0 in February, 1-0 in March 2025, 4-0 in February 2024. Cagliari took a 1-0 win last December, while in August 2024 it finished 0-0.
The scorers show where the risk lies. Donyell Malen has 6 goals and 1 assist for Roma, Matias Soulé 3 goals and 1 assist. Cagliari answer with Daniel Maldini, who has 4 of the team's 6. If Maldini doesn't make an impact, the team struggles to find other routes: that's the slim margin the market's 10% reflects.
What to watch
The market and the bookmakers are aligned on the favourite, with Roma between 71% and 74%. In the days before kick-off, keep an eye on two things: whether the "Yes" on Roma moves again from 74%, and whether Cagliari stay close to 10%. Then on the pitch: whether Cagliari end their goal drought and whether Malen adds another to his 6.
