Milan v Bologna: bookmakers make the Rossoneri 59% favourites, and the table explains the price

Milan are still unbeaten in Serie A: 8 games, 5 wins and 3 draws. Bologna have already lost 4. That is where the price for Milan v Bologna comes from, kicking off on 28 October at 18:30 Italian time.

What the prices say

On Polymarket, the "yes" on a Milan win trades at 0.605. If you're new to prediction markets: the "yes" price reads as the implied probability, so 61%. Trading volume over the last 24 hours is $7,507.

The bookmakers are on the same page. Pinnacle has Milan at 1.62, equal to 59%, the draw at 4.14 (23%) and Bologna at 5.57 (17%). Betclic offers 1.55 on Milan, i.e. 59%, with the draw at 3.83 (24%) and the visitors at 5.25 (17%). Unibet lists 1.50, 3.80 and 5.20: 59% home win, 24% draw, 17% away win. Three operators, practically the same verdict.

The table: two different worlds

Milan are fourth with 18 points, 16 goals scored and 7 conceded. Bologna are 13th with 8 points, 8 goals scored and 10 conceded. A gap of 10 points after 8 matches: the difference between a side looking up and a side looking over its shoulder.

Recent form

Milan come into this with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 5. Their latest result was a 2-0 win at Udinese. Before that came a 3-2 home win over Atalanta and a 1-1 draw at Sassuolo. The 3-0 win over Lecce and the 2-2 draw with Lazio complete the picture.

Bologna have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 6 conceded. They won 2-0 away at Cagliari and 2-1 against Lecce, but lost 3-1 at home to Inter and 1-0 at Napoli. In between came a 1-1 draw with Torino. A side that blows hot and cold: the signal is one of balance, not consistency.

One figure worth bearing in mind: in their last 5, Milan have conceded in 3 games, including 2 to Atalanta and 2 to Lazio. Bologna, for their part, have scored in 4 of their last 5. That is one reason the draw is far from out of the picture (23-24%).

Head-to-head and scorers

In the last 4 meetings Milan have won 3 and Bologna 1, with no draws. Total goals: 11. The most recent meeting, on 3 February, finished 0-3 to the Rossoneri in Bologna. Bologna's only win in those 4 games came on 27 February 2025: 2-1.

Among the scorers, Adrien Rabiot leads Milan with 4 goals and 3 assists, followed by Diego Moreira with 3 goals and 1 assist.

Where the market is more cautious

A favourite at 59-61% is not an overwhelming favourite. The numbers on the pitch are clear-cut, but Bologna have shown they can score and Milan have conceded in 3 of their last 5 outings. The price captures exactly that: a clear edge, but not a huge margin.

What to watch

Over the coming days, keep an eye on the "yes" price on Milan, currently 0.605, and on the odds from the three operators. If they drift away from 59-61%, the market has changed its mind. Then there's the pitch: if Bologna score again, the draw gets a stronger case.