Levante v Atletico Madrid: the table says mismatch, the home history says keep watching

Start with the table, because it frames everything. Atletico Madrid are 2nd in La Liga with 25 points from 10 games: 8 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat. Levante are 14th with 10 points, from 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats.

The goal columns tell the same story. Atletico have scored 20 and conceded 8. Levante have scored 16 and conceded 19. One side is tight at the back. The other leaks.

Form: Atletico arrive in better shape

Atletico's last 5, across La Liga and the Champions League, read 4 wins and 1 draw, with 7 goals scored and 2 conceded. They beat Deportivo La Coruna 1-0 at home, drew 1-1 at VfB Stuttgart in Europe, won 1-0 at Espanyol, beat Manchester United 2-0 in the Champions League and won 2-1 at Alaves.

Levante's last 5 are all league games: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 defeats, 9 scored and 10 conceded. They lost 2-1 at Real Sociedad, beat Athletic Club 3-1 at home, drew 1-1 at Deportivo La Coruna, drew 3-3 at home with Sevilla and lost 3-1 at Villarreal.

Where Levante give a reason to look twice

Levante's attack is not toothless. They scored 3 against Athletic Club and 3 against Sevilla in their two most recent home games, so this is not a side that struggles to score. Brugui leads the way with 5 goals and 1 assist, and Iván Romero has 3 goals.

The problem is the other end. In that Sevilla game they conceded 3, and across the last 5 they have let in 10. Atletico's front line has its own threats: Álex Baena has 5 goals and 2 assists, and J. David has 3 goals and 2 assists.

The head-to-head is closer than the table

The 6 listed meetings split evenly: 2 wins for each side and 2 draws, with 13 goals in total. The most recent two were a 3-1 Atletico win at home in November and a 0-0 at Levante's place on 31 January.

Levante's three listed home games against Atletico finished 0-2, 2-2 and 0-0. Not a record that suggests a home win is likely, but it does show Atletico have not simply cruised in this fixture away from home.

Availability

Atletico are without Koke, out with a muscle injury. J. Cardoso (thigh injury) and C. Romero (muscle injury) are doubtful. Levante are missing E. Bardeli, also with a muscle injury, and Dela is doubtful with an overload problem.

What to watch before kick-off

The football case points one way: Atletico have the better table position, the sturdier defence and the stronger recent run. The details that could narrow the gap are the late fitness calls on Cardoso and C. Romero, and whether Levante's recent habit of scoring at home carries over.